Estimating the contribution of demographic factors to the demographic ageing in Galicia (Spain): retroprojection and standardized age methods

Antía Pérez Caramés, Universidade da Coruña

In this paper I will deal with the results of two different methods employed for estimating the contribution of demographic factors –fertility, mortality and migrations- to the process of population ageing: the retroprojection method (as suggested by Le Bras, 2003) and the standardized age method (as used by Calot and Sardon, 1999). I will apply these methods to the study of the demographic ageing in Galicia, a region located in the northwest of Spain which has experienced an accelerated and intensive demographic ageing during the last decades. I will assess the different contributions to the process of demographic ageing in Galicia since 1950 made by the decline of fertility, the increase in life expectancy and the migratory balance. Both techniques provide different results for the estimated contribution of these three factors to the process of population ageing; thus, differences in the results and the accuracy of these two methods will also be reviewed throughout this paper.

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Presented in Poster Session 1