Human development and low fertility

Mikko Myrskylä, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Hans-Peter Kohler, University of Pennsylvania
Francesco C. Billari, Università Bocconi

The most developed countries led both the first and second demographic transitions, and during these transitions, development indicators were inversely correlated with fertility levels. Results from data on 100 countries for the period 1975-2005 suggest that countries with highest development are again leading the transition by showing signs of fertility recovery from low and lowest-low levels to closer to replacement levels, and among the most developed countries, the association between fertility and development has changed from negative to positive.