Education boom of baby-boomers in Poland in the beginning of XXI century – Analysis of possible demographic and economic effects using multistate projection for the years 2007-2030

Paweł A. Strzelecki, Warsaw School of Economics

The article presents the assumptions and results of the multistate population projection for Poland which added the education level to age and sex. The motivation to prepare of such projection was the rapid increase of the share of graduates of tertiary education in the young generation of baby boomers in Poland. Longer period of female education contributes to the decrease of TFR because of the postponement of the first births. The popularization of higher education usually connected with better health habits could lead to the increase of life expectancy of the total population. Labour force participation rate of highly educated people is usually higher then those with low skilled especially in pre-retirement age The aim of the paper is to asses the possible consequences of the dramatic changes in the proportions of people by the education level for demographic parameters and labour force participation rate under the assumption of keeping constant the differences between education groups.