Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to 2030

Michael Murphy, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
Carol Jagger, University of Leicester
Emily Grundy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
Chris Curry
Ruth Hancock, University of Essex
Raphael Wittenberg, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
Linda M Pickard, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
Adelina Comas-Herrera, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
Derek King, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
Juliette Malley, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)

In the UK the number of people over the state pension age is projected to rise by almost 40% in the next 25 years. The number aged 80 and over, where care needs are greatest, will nearly double. The financial, family, social and health resources of the older population have substantial implications for the well-being of those concerned and for public policy, but consistent projections of their likely future circumstances are lacking. We describe a project (Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to 2030) which is investigating how trends in mortality and morbidity will evolve, and if the extra years of life will be lived in good health; the consequences of changes in family circumstances on the availability of informal sources of care and for older people's social participation; and older people's ability to meet care costs. The project will use a series of linked simulation models to project up to 2030 the numbers, family circumstances, income, pensions, savings, disability and care needs (formal and informal), the key determinants of the resources and needs of older people. Special attention will be given to the inter-relationships between care needs (and their determinants) and economic resources in later life, and to the affordability, and distribution of costs and benefits. For the first time, long-term care and pensions policy reform options may be analysed together. The project builds upon models that have already been developed but brings them together to improve the range of outputs that each of the models can produce. The basis of the models and their integration is described.