Population stabilisation: migration vs fertility (the case of Russia)

Gaiane Safarova, Russian Academy of Sciences
Eugeny Il'in, Saint-Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics
Nina Kosolapenko, Saint-Petersburg Institute for Economics and mathematics

Complicated demographic situation in Russia is characterized by negative RNI which is not compensated by positive net migration. Thus, the total population size has decreased during more than a decade resulting in numerous socio-economical problems. To resist negative demographic trends effective social policies are required. The latter should base on the clear understanding of effects of population reproduction components on population size and age structure dynamics. Demographic processes have a great inertia, and among them migration is recognized to be the most suitable for regulation. Migration increase sometimes is considered as a solution for depopulation problem and a question concerning replacement migration is raised (UN, 2000). In many empirical studies replacement migrations streams are searched by making numerous projections based on different scenarios. In the paper an another approach is taken. Within the framework of extended Leslie matrix model computer-based technique of modeling replacement migration is suggested. The paper aims at applying this technique to study possibilities of population non-decrease in long-term perspective for low fertility countries (the case of Russia). Long-term dynamics of Russia’s female population is considered under different types of migration structures. Initial migration age profile has been found to affect significantly migration stream and thus the limit population size and structure. Under current fertility, for long-term stable dynamics implausibly big migration streams are required. Thus, we combine quite plausible TFR increase with corresponding migration which provide population stabilization. For each considered variant of the TFR and migration the corresponding limit population is computed. Effects of fertility profile on the limit population size and distribution are analyzed. For computations Mathcad 2001 Professional has been used. Vital statistics given by Goskomstat of the Russian Federation, Centre D’Estudis Demographics UAB, Eurostat is used. Results of the study may be used when defining more exactly directions of social policies.