Fertility trends on the second demographic transition in Portugal

Maria Magalhaes, Statistics Portugal
Edviges Coelho, Statistics Portugal
Jorge Bravo, University of Evora

Over the last decades, Portugal has been experiencing a period of low fertility, with fertility rates well below two children per women. This trend, that is foreseen to persist in the coming years, leads to an expected reduction in the number of births and has significant impacts on both the dimension and the age structure of the population. This demographic evolution will foster in near future major transformations in a number of different areas such as in education, housing, labour market, heath care and pensions systems. The purpose of this study is to provide a better understanding of fertility trends in Portugal focusing on the most relevant related factors (demographic, social and economic) within the context of the Second Demographic Transition in Portugal, using accurate data and recently developed demographic methods that enable also a prospective view of the different size of the future generations. The database to use in this study will be provided by the Statistics Portugal and comprises the observed number of live births according different variables and the estimated resident population at December 31 of each year, both for the period 1980:2006.