Ethnic structure of population in Russia: Current trends and the future

Eugeny Soroko, State University Higher School of Economics

Paper describes the features of ethnic composition of Russia at the turn of 21 century. The main topic is to analyze the most significant changes in formation of ethnic structure taken place in the recent decade resulting from significant decline of fertility and its ethnic differentiation, scale-down of selected ethnic emigration, and growing immigration of other peoples. Besides, they are influenced by the features of mixed marriage formation and development of migration legislation. The main sources were USSR and Russia population censuses, 1994 microcensus, annual and monthly statistics of Rosstat (Federal agency of state statistics). Russia is a multiethnic country the majority of which are the Russians. They are currently about 80 per cent, but gradually depopulating. The total number of ethnicities accounted in 2002 census exceeds 190. At least the following five parts may be distinguished: The peoples who live during centuries on the territory of Russia: Bashkirs, Mordvins, Tatars, Chechens, Chuvashs, and many others. Many of them live rather compactly and form their national republics: Tuva, Sakha (Yakutiya), etc. Some of them are often referred to as the Peoples of the North. The peoples of ex-USSR republics: Ukrainians, Azerbaijanians, Letts, Tadjiks, etc. Gradually growing group of peoples intensively migrating to Russia: Vietnamese, Chinese, Turks, etc. The Germans and Jews living in Russia for a long time. Rather small part of ethnicities with the European origin: Serbs, Czechs, Bulgarians, etc. Peoples and ethnic groups of Russia belong to various confessions, have quite different historical and territorial origins, and significantly vary by the demographic behavior. The majority is very close to the European pattern of fertility and has higher mortality. The next relatively large part manifests demographic behavior typical for Muslims. The main question to discuss is: What is the possible future of ethnic composition for various scenarios?