Combining migration data in England and Wales

James Raymer, University of Southampton
Peter W.F. Smith, University of Southampton
Corrado Giulietti, University of Southampton

At present, the internal migration data in England and Wales are limited due to differences in sources, availability, quality and measurement. In this presentation, we present a statistical model for combining annual National Health Service registration data with decennial census data to predict detailed flows (e.g., migration cross-classified by origin, destination, age, sex and ethnicity) over time from 1991 to 2005. Annual flows of migration by origin, destination, age and sex can be obtained from the National Health Service registers. More detailed data containing characteristics, such as ethnicity, education or employment can only be obtained from the decennial censuses. The advantages to having a consistent and reliable set of migration flows over time are numerous. Detailed estimates of migration flows are needed so that local governments have the means to improve their planning policies directed at supplying particular social services or at influencing levels of migration. This is important because migration is currently (and increasingly) the major factor contributing to population change at sub-national levels in England and Wales.