The effect of contraceptive use on parity progression: an empirical analysis in low fertility regions of Iran

Meimanat Hosseini Chavoshi, University of Tehran
Peter McDonald, Australian National University
Mohammad J. Abbasi-Shavazi , University of Tehran
Neda Moradi

Contraceptive use dynamics presents a precise picture of the way which fertility has reached below replacement level in some regions in Iran. The purpose of this paper is to explore the extent of parity progression differentials among users and non-uses of contraception since 1970. The 2005 Iran Low Fertility Survey conducted in four low fertility regions of Iran is used to meet the aim of the study. Survival analysis is applied to the information of the life time fertility and contraceptive use history of women aged 15–54 years to examine the impact of contraceptive use on the survival function of parity progression at each parity level zero to three. Moreover, the cessation of childbearing is analyzed to examine factors associated with sterilization adoption and limiting childbearing. A sharp increase in contraceptive use is observed from the earliest to the most recent marriage cohort. No significant changes is observed on the progressing to the first birth or practicing contraception to avoid first pregnancy by 1995, while recent sign of delaying first birth is accompanied by higher rates of contraceptive use prior first pregnancy. Further analysis also indicates a precise association between contraceptive use and socio-demographic factors. There is an emerging trend to delay the first birth following marriage, a longer term trend towards wide spacing between the first and the second birth, and cessation of childbearing after the second birth. Controlling women for their level of education indicates little difference in delay of the third child among users and non-users. Though, women with higher levels of education even in the absence of using any contraception delayed the birth of a third child. This gives rise to the idea of back-ups to contraceptive use including intentional miscarriage or induced abortion.