Evaluating the performance of the InterVA Model for determining AIDS mortality in the adult population of Addis Ababa

Biruk T. Tessema, Addis Ababa Mortality Surveillance Program
Tekebash Araya, Addis Ababa University
Tolcha Kebebew, Addis Ababa University

Objective: Evaluating the performance of the InterVA model against gold standard. Methods: Causes of death determined by the model are compared with causes identified using hospital records. Results: The certainty of the probabilistic model varies from 20% to 100% with an average of 81%. The proportion of AIDS death determined by the gold standard is 56.5% while that of the InterVA is 54%. Both the InterVA and the gold standard gave identical results of AIDS and non-AIDS deaths (81%). Classifying all deaths as AIDS and non-AIDS, the sensitivity Value is 0.86 and the specificity is 0.73. Grouping HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis increases both sensitivity and specificity values to 0.92 and 0.78, respectively. Conclusion: The analysis of VA based on probabilistic model produces promising results when compared to the gold standards to estimate adult AIDS mortality.