A retrospective analysis of fertility decline in turkey: an application of own-children method to Turkey demographic and health survey data sets

Pelin Cagatay, Hacettepe University

Information related to fertility is obtained from vital registrations, censuses and demographic researches. Due to the fact that vital registration system in Turkey does not work well and they are not very reliable, censuses and demographic surveys are mostly utilised for fertility estimations. By using one of these two sources, the level and trend of fertility can also be determined by means of indirect methods. Own-children method is one of the indirect methods of fertility estimation that uses the current information about the age-structure of women and children as well as their mortality pattern in order to provide the estimations of fertility rates for the 15-year period preceding a census or survey. The objective of this paper is to apply this method to the household data sets of 1993 and 2003 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHSs) carried out by Hacettepe Institute of Population Studies every five years nationwide. When employing the method, mortality is assumed to have remained constant during the 15-year time period and East model among Coale-Demeny model life tables has been preferred. If each of the three surveys are thought to produce a 15-year estimation period for fertility with this method, own-children provides the opportunity to do more definitive analyses related to the level and trend of fertility in Turkey as of 1978 without any age restrictions. In order to check the validity and reliability of the own-children method, fertility estimates of own-children have also been compared with those of TDHS-type. The preliminary results of the study show that the level and the pattern of fertility obtained from own-children method are in line with those obtained from TDHSs despite some slight differences.