Migration and the life course: does retirement trigger interregional moves?

Nikola Sander, University of Queensland
Martin Bell, University of Queensland

It is well recognised that the early decades of the 21st century will be an era of rapid population ageing. The baby boom cohort approaching retirement age, reduced fertility and higher life expectancy will result in an absolute and relative increase in the elderly population, including those of retirement-age. In this context, it is somewhat surprising that only limited attention has been directed to exploring the relationship between life course transitions and later life migration. This is not only a scientific issue; migration is of crucial importance since it plays a fundamental role in shaping population age structure as much as its sister fields fertility and mortality. In their classification of later life migration, Litwak and Longino (1987) argued that elderly mobility is triggered either by the desire to maximise lifestyle amenities, or by declining health status. A number of studies have addressed the relationship between migration and health (Larson et al. 2005; Norman et al. 2005). Remarkably little attention, however, has been given to the association between migration and the shift in labour force status from employment to retirement. Using longitudinal data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey we address this deficiency. We test a simple hypothesis that retirement represents an important life course event which triggers voluntary amenity-seeking moves (Bures 1997). A discrete-time event history model is used to predict the hazard probability of moving based on a range of independent variables, which include: age, sex, post-school qualifications, employment status, income, marital status, and health status. The inclusion of time-varying predictors such as employment and health status allows a truly dynamic analysis of migration behaviour and its association with life course events, such as death of a spouse. Our results provide new insights into the influence of life course factors and the timing of retirement on the probability of interregional migration.