Regional migration in Turkey with Markov Chain analysis

Leyla Bilen Kazancık, State Planning Organization
Guler Kocberber, Public Procurement Authority

Immigration is one of the three main factors influencing the population. Movements of population in Turkey are not only from rural to urban characteristics but also interregional characteristics. While the population of big cities in Turkey is growing by immigration even more, other cities are decreasing in population by emigration. Furthermore, one of the significant characteristics of immigration is that it is from east to west of the country. The aim of the study is to examine characteristics of migrant and reasons of migration in the period between 1995 and 2000 in Turkey and to estimate distribution of immigrants by regions in the long term. Migration data gathered from General Population Census dated 2000 were used for 26 National Units (Regional Classification) in this study. Interregional migration was examined comparatively with regard to place of departure and destination. Also, the distribution of population of Turkey by 26 national regions was estimated by using method of Markov Chains in the long term. Moreover, by finding out net migration rate, probability of immigration between regions and the most preferred and the least preferred regions, for every level 2, the direction of the migration will be determined and assessments on region-basis will be performed. Key Words: Regional Migration, Markov Chains, Turkey