Premarital conception and the risk of subsequent marital dissolution: the case of Russia

Aiva Jasilioniene, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Evgueni Andreev, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

The paper provides an analysis on divorce risk in first marital unions in Russia, with a major focus on the impact of premarital conception on the stability of subsequent marriage. A number of other predictors are also discussed in the paper, including age at first marriage, parity and age of the youngest child, parental divorce, religious group, educational attainment and enrolment, duration of marriage and calendar period. The analysis is based on data from the Russian Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) carried out in 2004 and has been done applying event history techniques. To validate obtained results, a similar analysis using Russian micro-census data from 1994 has been performed. Findings of the study suggest that marriages induced by pregnancy run higher divorce risk compared to those contracted without anticipation of childbirth.