Migration and replacement: The case of Spain.

Alejandro Aguirre, El Colegio de México

Migration and Replacement: The Case of Spain. For some years, fertility in Europe has remained below replacement. So far there are no signs of any recovery of previous fertility levels and nobody knows when that recovery will take place or whether it will come at all. Meanwhile, European population has remained more or less constant due to a combination of factors. Relatively numerous cohorts in childbearing ages has contributed to this equilibrium on one hand, and on the other migration. Immigration itself increases the population in the place of arrival. Besides, most migrants are young; namely, at the beginning of their reproductive periods. Therefore, they also contribute with their offspring. Moreover, the fertility of migrants tends to be above the fertility of the native population. How many migrants and with what fertility levels are required to keep at least constant the population under the current situation? This paper deals with that question, for the case of Spain, whose fertility is below replacement, and also receives migrants especially from Latin America and in recent years in particular from countries like Ecuador.