Educational attainment and internal migration. an analysis of the 2001 Italian population census

Frank Heins, IRPPS.CNR, Rome

After an exploratory study based on two Italian regions which results were presented during EPC2006, the author proceeds with the comprehensive analysis of internal migration according to educational attainment. The analysis is based on the complete set of the approximately 56.6 million individuals living in private households and focuses on the 682,000 individuals who indicated an inter-provincial (103 provinces) change of residence during the one-year period prior to the census. The comprehensive analysis confirmed the impression that in some instances, especially in the case of flows between Northern and Southern Italy, the census question might have been misinterpreted. To further assess the quality of the information a comparison with register data is conducted. Results are presented using different perspectives: in a first macro approach the impact of educational attainment on the internal mobility patterns and models to explain these patterns are studied; in a second macro approach the outcome (the regional distribution of human capital) of selection processes in internal migration regarding the educational attainment is analysed; in a micro approach causal models of internal migration at the individual level are considered. In the descriptive analysis patterns of internal migration by gender, age and educational attainment are presented. A logit model is applied to disentangle the effects of demographic factors and the level of educational attainment regarding the decision to change residence. Results are presented summarily for all Italian provinces and in full detail only for a few selected provinces and urban areas. The 2001 population census data allow for a first time the detailed analysis of the information regarding the educational attainment/internal mobility nexus. Even if in the majority of cases a positive relation between educational attainment and internal mobility is observed, the relative low level of internal mobility in Italy prevents far-reaching consequences of this selection process.