Considering, planning and realizing migration: the influence of life-course events and perceived opportunities on leaving the city in early adulthood

Stefanie A. Kley, University of Bremen
Clara H. Mulder, University of Amsterdam

Previous studies show relatively great discrepancies between migration intentions and subsequent migration behaviour. We propose an analytical framework in which the migration process is subdivided into a phase of decision-making, consisting of considering and planning the move, and another phase of realizing the move. We focus on leaving the city among young adults without children. The data come from a survey in two German cities (Magdeburg and Freiburg), and were gathered via a two-wave design in 2006 and 2007. The results of a generalized ordered logistic regression analysis of not considering, considering or planning migration, and a binomial logistic regression of realizing versus not realizing it, reveal that the explanatory power of life-course events and perceived opportunities is concentrated in the phase of decision-making, whereas planning migration is the major predictor of realizing it.