Realization of birth intention. An analysis focusing on gendered labor market differences

Balázs Kapitány, Demographic Research Institute
Zsolt Spéder, HCSO Demographic Research Institute

In modern societies where the means of planning and controlling childbearing behaviors are available, the understanding of childbearing decisions became more and more important as a tool understanding fertility changes. In our investigation we will focus on the intention -- childbearing relation, on the realization of childbearing intentions. Our investigations start at the point, when childbearing intentions are present, and we are interested which kind of factors helps on the one side, and which factors hampers the realization of childbearing intentions. This process is investigated by using two waves of the Hungarian Generation and Gender Survey: short term intentions (intending a(nother) birth within three years) and possible explaining factors are measured at the first wave of the survey, dependent variable (having or not a child within 3 years) is measured using the data of the two waves. We will use logistic regression to analyze associations. Among the determining factors we will focus on labor market effects, and on influences emerging from the monetary transfers of maternity. These are institutions of the national welfare regimes, and could be influenced if there is any intention to shape stimulating circumstances of childbearing. In our models we will show, that females’ status related to labor market has significant effect on the risks getting the child if intention is prevalent.