Methodology for the estimation of annual population stocks by citizenship group, age and sex in the EU and EFTA countries

Dorota Kupiszewska, Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research (CEFMR)
Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton

The paper addresses problems of poor statistics on international migration and presents selected results of the first part of the project on “Modelling of statistical data on migration and migrant population” (MIMOSA) funded by Eurostat and conducted jointly by NIDI, CEFMR, GeDAP UCL and S3RI University of Southampton. The focus is on the data on population stocks by broad group of citizenship, sex and age. After a brief overview of the main problems with data on population by citizenship for 31 European countries (27 European Union countries, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland), a range of estimation methods is proposed including cohort-wise interpolation, cohort-component projections and proportional fitting methods, as well as other, auxiliary methods. The strategy for choosing the best method for estimating missing data on population stock by broad citizenship (nationals, foreigners – EU27 citizens, foreigners – non EU27 citizens), 5-year age group (up to 85+) and sex on 1 January 2002-2006 is presented, as well as examples of its application for selected countries.