Fertility patterns of native and foreign-origin population: the case Estonia

Kalev Katus, Estonian Interuniversity Population Research Centre
Allan Puur, Estonian Interuniversity Population Research Centre
Asta Põldma, Estonian Interuniversity Population Research Centre

The present paper addresses the demographic development of foreign-origin population, against the background of native population, with the main focus on fertility patterns. In the European context, Estonia is characterised by an early switch from emigration to immigration and the start of large migration inflows dating back to geopolitical rearrangements ensuing from the WWII. This has resulted in the emergence of numerous second generation which dominates the reproductive age cohorts among foreign-origin population for about two decades. Hence from a scholarly point of view, Estonia offers favourable ground to study demographic integration, reflected in the convergence of behavioural patterns between native and foreign-origin population. The paper is structured in three sections. The first section outlines the aims of the study, conceptual issues and the general background concerning the formation and characteristics of foreign-origin population in Estonia. The second section presents the analysis of fertility trends, comparatively for native and foreign-origin population. The analysis primarily applies a cohort approach and addresses the quantum and timing of childbearing, the classical demographic methods are complemented with event history models. The timeframe of the study stretches from generations born in the early 20th century to those currently shaping the fertility patterns in the country. The results lend support to the notion that in the second generation demographic behaviour does not reveal convergence with native population. The third section includes summary and discussion of the findings. The data for the paper come from Estonian FFS/GGS, combined with census and vital statistics.