Mortality and longevity projections for the oldest-old in Portugal

Jorge Bravo, University of Evora
Edviges Coelho, Statistics Portugal
Maria Magalhaes, Statistics Portugal

The mortality decline observed in developed countries over the last decades significantly increased the number of those surviving up to older ages. Mortality improvements are naturally viewed as a positive change for individuals and as a substantial social achievement for societies, but create new challenges in a number of different areas, ranging from the planning of all components of social security systems to labour markets. Understanding mortality and survival patterns at older ages is crucial. In this paper, we compare the results provided by a number of different methods designed to project mortality for the oldest-old in the Portuguese population. We identify the merits and limitations of each method and the consequences of their use in constructing complete life tables.