Post-Soviet economic crisis and fertility decline: parity-specific trends in Tajikistan

David Clifford, University of Southampton
Andrew Hinde, University of Southampton
Jane C. Falkingham, University of Southampton

Tajikistan offers an opportunity to contribute to two neglected research areas: the demography of post-Soviet Central Asia, and demographic responses to conflict and food crisis in the developing world. Here, given the inadequate nature of official registration data, survey birth history data are used to describe trends in fertility and nuptiality. Overall, fertility has declined significantly since independence. The fluctuating pattern of change indicates that the country’s post-Soviet demography has been shaped by three specific crises: the period of peak fighting in the civil war in 1992, leading to a decline in higher-order fertility in the worst affected areas in 1993; a food crisis in 1995, leading to immediate and significant declines in marriage and conception rates; and a drought in 2000-01, which also led to marriage and fertility declines. The paper serves to further illustrate the demographic impact of periods of acute social and economic crisis.